$360 Million in timber damage

[dfasano]

With the way sawtimber prices have been the last 5 years or so it would have benefited a lot of people to clearcut and replant. The value of the next rotation in the ground outweighs a few $/ton. Run the numbers. Time value of money.

[Calibogue]

With pulpwood bringing the kind of stumpage it is today, there is no question about the rate of return and what I do or advise to do with timber resources!
This is even more true with the advanced genetics in Loblolly pine....the volume gain is astounding.....10-15 years, WHACK IT and do it again!
Like growing 15 year old corn.....

[dfasano]

All I know is that I would want to have a heavy balance of pulpwood 15 years from now. All indications show a heck of a demand both domestically and globally. There is no question that the supply will be down if we continue this trend we are on with age structure.

Yep. The last few years everyone has been holding their sawtimber, waiting for prices to increase. Planting #'s are way down.

I've got some land towards the GA coast that has been killing it the last few years selling $20+/ton pulpwood. CC close to 1000 acres of ~20 yo slash in the last 3 years.

[GBelly]

With pulpwood bringing the kind of stumpage it is today, there is no question about the rate of return and what I do or advise to do with timber resources!
This is even more true with the advanced genetics in Loblolly pine....the volume gain is astounding.....10-15 years, WHACK IT and do it again!
Like growing 15 year old corn.....

and there you have it. get your pen and pad and take notes fellas.

I agree 100%

[dfasano]

With pulpwood bringing the kind of stumpage it is today, there is no question about the rate of return and what I do or advise to do with timber resources!
This is even more true with the advanced genetics in Loblolly pine....the volume gain is astounding.....10-15 years, WHACK IT and do it again!
Like growing 15 year old corn.....

I'd follow that up with an * . Depends on the market.

While that may be true in your area, it's not in all. If you have property in Northern SC and SE GA, that short rotation management regime would bring a higher NPV for one of the two markets.

[CAMO SNOB]

I don't even need to right it down... I can remebder CC every 15.

BUT what does that do to your hunting leases? You clear cut my 1000 acre hunting club then planted baby trees to cut in 15 years would mean no lease. Who would lease the shit?

[Calibogue]

I don't even need to right it down... I can remebder CC every 15.

BUT what does that do to your hunting leases? You clear cut my 1000 acre hunting club then planted baby trees to cut in 15 years would mean no lease. Who would lease the shit?

Lets do the math here.....$10,000/YR lease for 15 years = $150,000
$1,500+/AC on clearcut @ 15 years = $1.5 million
WHO GIVES A SHIT ABOUT THE LEASE?

[dfasano]

That is becoming less common these days due to the land holdings of large timber companies and forest certification requirements. SFI for instance limits CC size and the percentage of acres being regenerated on a tract.

Those same companies want an even age class distribution.

[Calibogue]

I'd follow that up with an * . Depends on the market.

While that may be true in your area, it's not in all. If you have property in Northern SC and SE GA, that short rotation management regime would bring a higher NPV for one of the two markets.

My statement assumes that those reading this have the sense to know or take advise from someone in the know regarding markets!
In no way am I implying a blanket statement that everyone should clearcut every 15 years.

[CAMO SNOB]

Lets do the math here.....$10,000/YR lease for 15 years = $150,000
$1,500+/AC on clearcut @ 15 years = $1.5 million
WHO GIVES A SHIT ABOUT THE LEASE?

The future values of expenses and your 1.5 is getting chewed on more than the 150k you cannot earn due to condition. 1.5 is turning into 1.2 quickly, but still solid if the price holds and the demand is there.

[dfasano]

My statement assumes that those reading this have the sense to know or take advise from someone in the know regarding markets!

In no way am I implying a blanket statement that everyone should clearcut eery 15 years.

I understand. Just wanted to clarify for those who might not be as knowledgable.

It definitely pays to hire a reputable consultant.

I transitioned into a new job last summer managing investment property from the sc/nc line to the fl/ga line and am still learning my markets!

[Layla's slave]

Don't you love consultants consulting other consultants? Thankfully landowners have other objectives other than $. There's nothing fun about pulpwood rotations.

[GBelly]

in 15 years when the demand is way the hell up there, certifications and standards will go out the window. sure some landholdings will stay in compliance, but $ rules in this game and we all know that. NOT saying that as a blanket for all landholdings...but for some, yes it will be their day in the sun.

not using the broad brush stroke here, just a generalization of how the typical family tree farm scenario may play out. I cant speak for the TIMO crowd. I have worked with them for years and their upper mgmt views on dirt forestry and "striking when the iron is hot" is delayed and different than the family farmer. decisions pass thru too many heads, spreadsheets, and portfolio managers. pulling the trigger FAST is doesn't happen often. those ideals may change. so yes, we are talking two diff types of landowner constraints.

[slowiedawg]

All I know is that I would want to have a heavy balance of pulpwood 15 years from now. All indications show a heck of a demand both domestically and globally. There is no question that the supply will be down if we continue this trend we are on with age structure.

I definitely see a shortage of pulpwood coming in the near future and great opportunities for landowners. Planting numbers are down and the majority of what I am planting in my area is Longleaf pine. This year I put 1 million Longleaf in the ground compared to 300,000 Loblolly. With the longer growth time on Longleaf it will add to this shortage.

[slowiedawg]

in 15 years when the demand is way the hell up there, certifications and standards will go out the window. sure some landholdings will stay in compliance, but $ rules in this game and we all know that. NOT saying that as a blanket for all landholdings...but for some, yes it will be their day in the sun.

You can bank on this.

[DMP]

I don't even need to right it down... I can remebder CC every 15.

BUT what does that do to your hunting leases? You clear cut my 1000 acre hunting club then planted baby trees to cut in 15 years would mean no lease. Who would lease the shit?

Someone would lease it.

[DMP]

Question, what kind of affect are the pellet plants having on the market?

[GBelly]

in sc, its minimal to nothing as of right now. they are coming though.

global demand for our forest products will be ramping up soon. it has slowly started with exporting lumber and whole trees in containers. let the pellet mills get up and running across the SE and the game will change quickly.

there are some pellet mills in the game right now, just not here. Mississippi, La, Fla are just getting their feet wet in this market.

until we America decides to use this renewable energy source, Europe will be a big customer for a while

[DMP]

in sc, its minimal to nothing as of right now. they are coming though.

global demand for our forest products will be ramping up soon. it has slowly started with exporting lumber and whole trees in containers. let the pellet mills get up and running across the SE and the game will change quickly.

there are some pellet mills in the game right now, just not here. Mississippi, La, Fla are just getting their feet wet in this market.

until we America decides to use this renewable energy source, Europe will be a big customer for a while

There's one about to break ground in Greenwood.

[GBelly]

I hear it is "pad ready"...construction lingo is rad

we have been hearing about them breaking ground and opening up over there and over here for a long time. biomass has been a major topic in the industry for years.

no different than the oburg sawmill...I will believe it is up and running when the first load of wood crosses the scales.

I hope you are right anyhow. that's the dark corner of the state when it comes to decent markets. we need more competition up there.